For some, the most eagerly anticipated event around this time of year is the annual release of the latest blockbuster, Star Wars for instance, with this year’s “Rogue One” pitting rebels against the dark side for a welcome 120 minutes or so. For a select few however, myself included, that prestigious mantle resides with the annual release of the Compact of States and Regions report, unveiled last week along with the disclosed dataset during a packed 40-minute webinar.
“This annual Disclosure Report is rapidly becoming the global benchmark for transparency and accountability on climate change mitigation for these crucial enablers of national government action and key actors in their own right.”
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Although the fate of the universe might not hang in the balance, that of our planet certainly does, and states and regions provide a source of new hope in the fight against climate change. 100 states and regions disclosed through CDP in 2016, over a 50% increase on 2015 and we’d like to say a huge thank you to all of those who disclosed. Using disclosure to catalyse climate action moves transparency and accountability to the heart of climate strategies, and we invite more states and regions to use this force in 2017 to measure, manage and engage stakeholders in their environmental performance.
Last week’s report focused on some of the most ambitious states and regions in the group; those that have joined the Compact of States and Regions. 62 of the 100 disclosing through CDP have joined this initiative, run by CDP and The Climate Group, thereby committing to set GHG reduction targets and develop an inventory. Looking at those that have already set targets, their ambition aligns with our projections of what is required of them for a well below 2-degree world, but only to the first milestone of 2020.
Most of them are on the right flightpath however, with nearly 20% of those with 2020 targets having already met them and 65% of governments overall currently cruising at or below their emissions back at base. With 2050 seemingly approaching at light speed, this progress to date is excellent, but government ambition must be increased to 2030 and 2050 to ensure the group falls back in formation with what’s required for a well below 2-degree world.
Only around a third of these governments have targets to 2030, and half to 2050, resulting in a projected absolute emissions cut of 59% by mid-century. Whilst this could save cumulative emissions of around 25 GtCO2e when compared with the 4-degree scenario, equivalent to over half of global emissions in 2012, it is not enough to grant us the 50% chance of avoiding dangerous climate change. That said, inspiration can and should be taken from the seven US states that have joined the Compact, all of which have targets to 2050, varying from a 50% to 80% reduction below base year emissions.
Projections aside, the analysis leaves us at CDP with one key message: plan with increased ambition, act with increased resolve and use disclosure as the catalyst.
Over 5,500 companies, 500 cities and 100 states and regions now disclose year-on-year through CDP. From companies setting science based targets, to working with their suppliers or improving their water and forest stewardship, to cities, states and regions doubling down on GHG reductions and increasing renewables for their citizens, CDP is catalysing the actions of an empire striking back against climate change.